Inventory is creeping up, days on market are stretching, and buyers are getting selective. The good listings are still moving in two to three weeks. The mispriced ones are sitting. Here is what the data shows, and what I am telling clients on both sides of the table.
Every spring I sit down with the Q1 numbers, walk a dozen open houses, and compare what I am seeing on the ground to what the data is saying. Sometimes those two things agree. This year they agree, and the picture is clearer than it has been in a couple of years.
Through the first quarter of 2026, the median sold price in greater Fredericton landed at $378,400, up roughly 3.1% year over year. Average days on market was 28 days, which is up from 19 a year ago. Months of inventory is sitting at 3.4. For context, anything under 4 still favours sellers, but only just. We are nowhere near the panic-bidding environment of 2021, and we are nowhere near a buyer's market either.
Averages flatten the truth. The actual market is bifurcating. Three things are happening at once, and you need to look at them separately.
If a home in Devon, Nashwaaksis, the south side, or the east end is priced reasonably and shows well, it is selling in 7 to 14 days, often with multiple offers. Buyers in this band are mostly first-timers and right-sizers, and they are ready. They have their pre-approval, they have been watching the MLS for months, and when the right one hits they move.
Move-up buyers have stalled. People sitting on a 2.5% mortgage from 2020 do not want to give it up to take on a 5% mortgage on a bigger house. So the move-up dance has slowed, which means homes in this band are sitting longer, especially if they need updating. If you own here and you list, you need to be priced sharply and the home needs to show beautifully. Mid-market buyers in 2026 are not paying for someone else's dated kitchen.
Genuine luxury, river views, acreage close to town, custom builds, all still trading. But the pool of qualified buyers is small, and they are deliberate. A home in this band needs presentation, marketing, and patience. The seller who needs a fast sale at $850,000 should think hard about whether now is the moment.
For two years we ran painfully short on listings. Spring 2026 is the first time in a while where I can show a couple a Saturday slate of five real options instead of two compromises. New construction has helped, particularly south of Hanwell and in the east end. Resale inventory is also coming on as folks who waited out the rate cycle finally list.
That said, we are still well below the inventory levels of 2018 and 2019. Anyone calling this a buyer's market has not been here long enough to remember what a real one looks like.
Posted five-year fixed rates with most lenders are sitting in the high 4s. Variable is a touch lower. The rate cycle has stabilized, which has done more for buyer confidence than the actual rate level. Predictability matters more than a 25 basis point difference, because it lets people commit.
The First Home Savings Account is doing real work for first-time buyers, especially when stacked with the RRSP Home Buyer Plan. I have written about that in detail in the first-time buyer guide. If you have not opened an FHSA yet, that is the single highest-leverage move you can make this year.
If you are selling in spring 2026, the playbook is straightforward.
Price for the market that exists, not the one you remember. The 2021 comp from your neighbour's sale is not the comp anymore. We need to look at the last 60 days of sales in your specific sub-market and price to land in the top third of comparable listings, not above them. The market punishes overpricing now in a way it did not three years ago.
Presentation matters more than ever. Decluttering, fresh paint where it shows, professional photography, and staging in key rooms. The cost is small. The impact on time on market and final sale price is meaningful.
Be ready to move on offers. Buyers do not have unlimited patience, and there are options. If you receive a clean offer at fair value, take it seriously even if you hoped for more.
The opposite of panic. Calm, prepared, decisive.
Get fully pre-approved, not just rate-shopped. A pre-approval from a real lender with a rate hold gives you confidence and credibility. Sellers can see the difference.
Know your top three priorities and your top three deal breakers. Everything else is negotiable. Buyers who try to optimize for everything end up paralyzed.
Be ready to act on the right home. The good ones still go fast. If we tour something on Saturday and it is the one, we should be in offer position by Sunday morning. That is not pressure, that is preparation.
Do not chase the unicorn. No home will be perfect. The home that hits eight of your ten boxes and is priced fairly is the one to act on, not the imaginary one that hits all ten and is priced low.
My base case for the rest of 2026 is more of the same. Inventory continues to rebuild gradually. Prices grind up at low single digits. Days on market stays elevated relative to 2021 to 2023 but does not blow out. Rates settle in the current range with the possibility of one cut later in the year if inflation cooperates.
The risk to that view is on the upside. If rates do come down meaningfully, the move-up market unfreezes quickly and we get a burst of activity that pulls inventory back down. The risk on the downside is a broader Canadian slowdown that takes employment with it. Fredericton is unusually insulated against that thanks to provincial government and university payrolls, but we are not immune.
Either way, the right move for most clients is the same. If your situation says now, now is fine. If your situation says wait six months, wait six months. The market in greater Fredericton is not going anywhere dramatic in either direction. Trying to time it perfectly is a losing game.
Macro numbers are useful for orientation. They do not tell you what your specific home is worth, or what to expect on the specific street you are watching. That is what the market call is for. Twenty minutes, real comps, and a clear answer.